Ranking the FBS Conferences After October 2016

Nearly all of the regular season non-conference games have been played. As the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will begin to release its weekly rankings this month, conference strength stands out as one factor, which should be considered. I present the rankings of the ten FBS conferences using my objective formula.

Here is an overview of the factors that comprise each conferences score:

1. Wins by each member of every conference when facing non-conference foes.

2. Games on the road are worth more than those at neutral sites or at home.

3. Victories versus other conferences’ champions or second-place teams/divisional winners count for more points.

4. Wins against FBS opponents have much more value than those against FCS members.

Below is how the 10 conferences measure up compared to one another entering November. Each conference’s score is in parenthesis. For those curious about the scale of my formula, a perfect score for a conference is 3.188.

Southeastern  (.649)

After stumbling out of the gates at the start of the season with a 6-6 tally in non-conference games, the SEC rebounded successfully for the most part. The SEC is 2-0 against both the American Athletic and Pacific 12 conferences.

The SEC has not dominated the other conferences as it had in recent seasons. It does not have a winning tally against the other Power Five: ACC (2-3), Big Ten (0-1) and Big Twelve (1-1).  Even CUSA has beaten the SEC twice in eight tries this season.

Big Ten (.589)

The Big Ten has scored an impressive tally in non-conference contests. They swept all six games versus the Mountain West and both against the Big 12. They also won four out of five of the contests against the AAC plus three of four versus the PAC 12. Additionally, in the only match-up between the Big Ten and the SEC, the Big Ten's member won.

However, a conference's strength depends as much on its front-runners as it does on its cellar-dwellers. The Big Ten members have lost two of seven matches with the MAC. The Big Ten has played the same number of FCS opponents as the SEC up to this point. The glaring difference is that the SEC won all of them but the Big Ten lost two of the eight contests.  

American Athletic (.544)

In the interest of fairness, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee should still consider a bid for the champion of the AAC if no conference champion finish undefeated. The members of the AAC have acquitted themselves rather admirably in non-conference matches. They have won 3 out of four versus the Big Twelve. They are 3-4 against the ACC. Unfortunately for this group, its champion will have at least two losses, which will most likely kill any chance of playing in the Final Four.

Atlantic Coast (.525)

The ACC looked mediocre in the first three weeks. Then the conference swept all nine of its non-conference games on the last weekend of September. The ACC has held its own versus the Big Ten (3-1) and SEC (3-2). They also swept all five contests versus CUSA.

The number of quality wins is lacking. More than a third of the ACC's wins came at the expense of FCS opponents. More than 40 percent of their victories occurred versus the Group of Five.  The ACC is a combined 2-3 against two mediocre independent teams, Notre Dame and Army.  Four intra-state rivalries with SEC teams on Thanksgiving weekend present the ACC opportunities to increase the conference's stature.

Pacific Twelve         (.515)

The Pacific Twelve has proved it superiority over the Big Twelve. Its score is significantly higher than the Big Twelve's. Plus, the PAC 12 won all three games in which these two have met.

Against the other major conferences, the PAC Twelve has struggled. They lost both games versus the SEC. They won only one of the four contests with the Big Ten. They have even piled up an underwhelming 6-3 tally in presumed rent-a-wins against the Mountain West. More bad news for the dozen from the Left Coast: they only have two non-conference games remaining to bolster their reputation.

Big Twelve (.375)

One can safely assume that the chances of the champion of Big Twelve advancing to the playoffs ended last Saturday. Actually, they took a huge nosedive in September. The group finished the non-conference slate 2-6 against the other Power Five members. Also, the AAC beat the Big Twelve in two of their four meetings.

The conference has little reason for pride. The group finished the non-conference slate 2-6 against the other Power Five members. Also, the AAC beat the Big Twelve in two of their four meetings. Seven of the conference's 18 non-conference wins occurred over FCS teams. Four other victories came at the expensive of Conference USA, the third weakest conference. 

Mountain West (.341)

The MWC can take some pride in having won three of nine versus the PAC 12.  Those victories helped keep the MWC out of the basement in these rankings.

Nearly half of the MWC's non-conference wins were against FCS teams. This group has a winning tally versus only two other conferences. One of those two is Conference USA against whom the MWC is 1-0. The other is the Sun Belt (4-3). 

Conference USA (.255)

CUSA has only won 18 of its 49 non-conference games. Eleven of those wins were against FCS opponents. CUSA is 0-4 versus the AAC and Big Twelve respectively; against the ACC, CUSA is 0-5. In total, the conference is 3-18 against Power Five members.

On the bright side, CUSA does have one win over an opponent from the Big Ten and two versus teams from the SEC.

Sun Belt (.238)

The Sun Belt Conference is trying to show that it is not just a collection of programs, which should be in the FCS. The decent records versus other conferences in the Group of Five help this claim: MAC (2-3), MWC (3-4) and CUSA (1-1). 

However, the Sun Belt is still merely hoping to be considered as a mid-range conference. The group has only one win in ten games against the Power Five. The conference has only played six FCS opponents but has lost one of those.

Mid-American (.229)

The MAC has scored some notable wins. They have won both games versus the Big Twelve. They have a 3-3 record against the MWC. They have also beaten the Big Ten twice in seven tries.

The MAC's reputation also has been tarnished rather noticeably. Its members have 0-3 marks versus both the SEC and AAC. The MAC lost both games against the ACC. This group also has four losses in its thirteen contests with FCS teams.